Kenneth C. Griffin Says Strait of Hormuz Closure Could Push Global Economy Into Recession
A prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints, could tip the global economy into recession, according to Kenneth C. Griffin, the billionaire founder of Citadel and one of the art world’s most influential collectors. Speaking Tuesday at the Semafor World Economy summit in Washington, D.C. Griffin said that if the strait remained closed for six to 12 months, “the world’s going to end up in a recession. There’s no way to avoid that.”
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 percent of global oil consumption each day, making it a critical artery for energy markets. Griffin said the closure has already produced shocks that raise the risk of a broader downturn. He also warned that central bankers could soon face a difficult judgment call: whether to treat inflation spikes as temporary or raise rates to contain them. He described the current environment as “very, very treacherous.”
Griffin’s comments carry unusual resonance in the art market, where he is among the most active and deep-pocketed buyers. He has paid $300 million for a Willem de Kooning painting and $200 million for Jean-Michel Basquiat’s “Untitled” (1982) in private sales. That Basquiat work set the artist’s auction record at $110.5 million when it sold at Sotheby’s New York in 2017. In June, the Pérez Art Museum Miami will present an exhibition of Basquiat paintings owned by Griffin, including “Untitled.”
His collection also includes major works by Paul Cézanne, Jasper Johns, Jackson Pollock, and Njideka Akunyili Crosby. Beyond collecting, Griffin has become a major patron, donating $40 million to the Museum of Modern Art in New York, $10 million to the Museum of Contemporary Art, Chicago, $25 million to the Shed in New York, and $125 million to Chicago’s Museum of Science and Industry, which was renamed the Griffin Museum after the gift.
The warning arrives at a fragile moment for the art market. After modest growth last year, helped by a handful of trophy sales in the fall marquee auctions, the market weakened in the first half of 2025 amid lower sales, collector hesitation, and several gallery closures. The slowdown has been linked to geopolitical conflict in Ukraine and Israel, as well as recession fears tied to tariff turmoil and the broader trade war. With the war with Iran now driving oil prices higher, the pressure on collectors may deepen again.
