Art Dealers Grow More Optimistic for 2026, Even as Costs and Trade Barriers Keep the Recovery Uneven
Dealer confidence is ticking upward as the art trade looks toward 2026, according to the latest Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report by economist Clare McAndrew.
By the end of 2025, 43 percent of dealers surveyed said they expected sales to improve in the coming year — a 10 percentage point increase from the previous survey. The shift suggests a cautious thaw after a period marked by volatility, but the report’s findings also underline how uneven the rebound remains.
McAndrew’s analysis points to a “patchy” recovery, with galleries facing persistent pressure from rising costs and ongoing trade barriers. For many businesses, those headwinds translate into higher day-to-day expenses and added complexity around cross-border transactions — factors that can weigh on margins even when demand shows signs of returning.
The report arrives amid a week of notable developments across the broader art ecosystem, from museum acquisitions to gallery rosters.
At TEFAF Maastricht, the Van Gogh Museum acquired a rare 19th-century painting by French artist Virginie Demont-Breton, adding a less frequently seen voice of the period to its holdings. The purchase underscores how major institutions continue to use top-tier fairs as strategic venues for targeted collecting, particularly when works with limited market visibility surface.
On the commercial side, sculptor Alma Allen has joined Perrotin ahead of his debut at the Venice Biennale. The move follows Allen’s split from his previous two galleries and positions him within one of the most internationally scaled dealer networks as attention gathers around Venice. A recent example of his practice is “Not Yet Titled (2024),” documented in a photograph by Charlie Rubin and credited courtesy of the artist and Kasmin, New York.
Taken together, the week’s headlines sketch a market that is regaining confidence without fully shedding its constraints: dealers are more hopeful about sales, institutions remain active buyers, and galleries continue to recalibrate their programs — all while the practical realities of cost and trade policy shape what recovery can look like in 2026.
